CA Drought Recovery: Integrating Attribution & Prediction Science
Martin Hoerling
APA
Tuesday, Jun 07, 2016, 2:00 pm
DSRC Room 2A-305
Abstract
The talk shows how PSL/APA science uses observations and models to explain drought variability over California. The ongoing California drought, which began in 2011, is a particular focus. I begin by characterizing this drought in a climate perspective of 120 years of California precipitation variability. The prospects for recovery from California’s worst four-year drought on record are next assessed, with a focus on the role of El Niño. Specifically, I ask how intelligence of a very strong El Niño informs predictions for California rainfall. In closing, I examine how California drought has unfolded this winter/spring, presenting analysis of forecasts experiments used to support the NOAA El Niño Rapid Response campaign. A discussion is opened on how prediction experiments can be integrated into an attribution of the California rainy season.
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Seminar Contact: richard.Lataitis@noaa.gov