Bias-correction of EPA Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model for PM 2.5 and Ozone

Irina Djalalova​​

Tuesday, Apr 03, 2018, 2:00 pm
DSRC Room 2A305


Abstract

he NWS/NCEP provides national air quality forecasts based on a chemical transport model driven by the NMM numerical weather prediction model. Unlike NWP model forecasts, historically there has not been an operational system for post-processing air quality model forecasts. Over the past 3 years, PSL has been working with NCEP to develop and apply post-processing techniques to air quality forecasts, similar to those used for weather models. The particular method used, combining analog forecasting and a Kalman filter, added sufficient skill to forecasts of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) that NCEP decided to make their PM2.5 forecasts public for the first time in January, 2016. More recently, PSL has extended the technique to ozone, and to improve extreme forecasts associated with forest fires as well.



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Seminar Contact: richard.lataitis@noaa.gov