The skewed nature of ensemble forecasts
Cecile Penland
Tuesday, Mar 06, 2018, 2:00 pm
DSRC Room 2A305
Abstract
The assumptions implicit in ensemble forecasting are not always appreciated. For example, the peak of the forecast probability is generally not at the same forecast as the forecast ensemble mean. In this talk I will discuss some ramifications of this property and show quantitative results for a simple model where the distributions of both initial conditions and climatology are unskewed.
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