June 10, 2019
GSD researchers Stan Benjamin and John Brown co-authored “100 Years of Progress in Forecasting and NWP Applications,” a chapter in the AMS Centennial Monograph, published by The American Meteorological Society (AMS). The chapter discusses how the international scientific community has collaboratively transformed weather forecasting and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) into an effective global and regional prediction capability over the past 100 years. Benjamin and Brown led the effort for this chapter along with co-authors from around the world, tracing the state of forecasting, observations, science understanding for forecasting, and the community of forecast providers and applications from 1919 through the present. They also include an account of forecasting and decision-making for D-Day in 1944 and an outlook on forecasting into the next 30 years.
The AMS Centennial Monograph is a tribute to the past century of innovation within the meteorological community and a source of inspiration for future scientists and researchers. A Century of Progress in Atmospheric and Related Sciences: Celebrating the American Meteorological Society Centennial marks 100 years of scientific research in the areas covered by AMS publications. The collection's abstract appears below and it has been published online at https://journals.ametsoc.org/toc/amsm/59.
Over the past 100 years, the international science community including government weather services, the proliferation of environmental observations, improved scientific understanding, growth of technology, and the media have together radically transformed weather forecasting into an effective, global and regional environmental prediction capability. This chapter traces the evolution of forecasting starting in 1919 (when the American Meteorological Society was founded) over four eras separated by breakpoints at 1939, 1956, and 1985. The current state of forecasting could not have been achieved without essential collaboration within and among countries in pursuing the common weather and earth-system prediction challenge. The AMS itself has had a strong role in enabling this international collaboration.
FIG. 13-1. Surface pressure analyses valid for the morning (0900 UTC) of 6 Jun 1944: contemporary (produced in real time) analyses from (left) the British (contour interval: 4 hPa) and (right) the Germans (contour interval: 5 hPa), and (center) the corresponding surface pressure (contour interval: 4 hPa) and 10-m winds from a 9-h European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations (ERA-CLIM) forecast initialized at 0000 UTC 6 Jun. The reconstructed figures are taken from Météo France (2014) and ECMWF (2014). The left panel is British Crown copyright, Met Office, and contains public-sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 (http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/).
The AMS Centennial Monograph is a tribute to the past century of innovation within the meteorological community and a source of inspiration for the scientists and researchers still to come. A Century of Progress in Atmospheric and Related Sciences: Celebrating the American Meteorological Society Centennial marks 100 years of scientific research in the areas covered by AMS publications. The monograph consists of 26 chapters, which together review more than 100 years of progress in key fundamental areas of research and the grand challenges in those areas of research in the coming decades.
For more information contact: Susan Cobb 303-497-5093