September 1, 2017
One of NOAA’s fundamental jobs is to protect lives and property in the face of severe weather. Our employee and team member of the month used experience and creativity to launch new tools that have increased NOAA’s success in this endeavor.
David Dowell, a meteorologist within OAR’s Global Systems Division (GSD), led the successful launch and demonstration of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE), a prototype hourly-updating ensemble regional analysis and prediction system. David and his team developed and demonstrated advanced methods to assimilate radar data that have already improved model predictions in the 1- to 6-hour time-frame. Through David’s strong leadership, HRRRE was deployed for the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment – South East (VORTEX-SE) field project, the Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment, and the summer Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall experiment. HRRRE is a major first step towards a national storm-scale data assimilation and forecast ensemble system. Allowing for uncertainty in atmospheric conditions and imperfections in forecast models, HRRRE forecasts represent multiple possible outcomes for potentially hazardous weather. National ensemble forecasts will help reduce aviation flight delays, improve the stability of our electric grid, manage wildfires, and support the agriculture industry.
For more information contact: Susan Cobb 303-497-5093