ESRL/PSD Seminar Series

Overview of Intraseasonal Climate Activities at NCEP/Climate Prediction Center

Michelle L'Heureux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC


There is increasing interest in the monitoring and prediction of intraseasonal climate variability. In recent years, this interest has been fueled by the visibility of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its influence on global weather and climate. This talk will present an overview of several activities at CPC that are intended to improve understanding leading to more realistic simulations and ultimately predictions of subseasonal climate variability and its associated impacts.

The MJO Weekly Update and conference call provides an assessment of the recent MJO evolution, status, and prediction of tropical precipitation and cyclone activity for weeks 1-2. This product is supplemented by a variety of statistical and dynamical tools. Other tools are under development, including a consolidation technique that takes advantage of the independent skill of the individual tools. There is also new research that explores the links between the MJO and the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Future work is discussed in the context of the Climate Test Bed (CTB), which will accelerate many of these research results into improved climate forecast models (including the NCEP Climate Forecast System), products and applications.

PSD-South Conference Room (1D403)
Thursday, 14 June 2007
12:00 Noon
Note: Special Thursday "Brown Bag" lunchtime seminar

SECURITY: If you are coming from outside the NOAA campus, please be advised that you will need an on-site sponsor. Please contact that person in advance of the seminar to be put on the list and allow 10 minutes extra on the day of the seminar. Please contact Joe Barsugli (303-497-6042) or Lucia Harrop (303-497-6188) at least a day before the seminar if you have any questions.