Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction
Tom Hamill, NOAA/ESRL/PSD
This seminar will provide a general overview of the current state of ensemble hydrologic prediction. Similar to the goals of ensemble weather and climate prediction, the goal is to improve upon streamflow forecast information by providing situationally dependent probabilistic estimates of streamflows. These can be used for improved flash-flood prediction, improved water resource management, and many other applications.
We begin with a review of the sources of forecast skill in short, medium, and long-range hydrologic predictions. Next, we provide an overview of the past and current state of ensemble hydrologic predictions. We then consider a proposed integrated probabilistic hydrologic prediction system where uncertainties in all components of the system, from weather inputs to the land-surface state to hydrologic model uncertainties are accounted for. We review the technological hurdles that must be overcome in the development of such a system.
SECURITY: If you are coming from outside the NOAA campus, please be advised that you will need an on-site sponsor. Please contact that person in advance of the seminar to be put on the list and allow 10 minutes extra on the day of the seminar. Please contact Joe Barsugli (303-497-6042) or Barbara Herrli (303-497-3876) at least a day before the seminar if you have any questions.