ESRL/PSD Seminar Series

Probabilistic Weather Forecast Calibration: New Results from the ECMWF Reforecasts

Tom Hamill, NOAA ESRL, Physical Sciences Division

Abstract


We review the impact of probabilistic forecast calibration using reforecast data sets from a 1998 version of the NCEP GFS and a 2005 version of the ECMWF forecast models. With both models, there is a substantial impact on temperature and precipitation forecast skill from the application of calibration techniques using reforecasts. The large training sample sizes were especially important for the correction of longer-lead temperature forecasts and precipitation forecasts at high thresholds. It is argued that the computation of reforecast data sets should become an integral part of operational ensemble prediction systems.


PSD-South Conference Room (1D403)
Wednesday, 17 October 2007
2:00 pm Refreshments at 1:50 pm

SECURITY: If you are coming from outside the NOAA campus, please be advised that you will need an on-site sponsor. Please contact that person in advance of the seminar to be put on the list and allow 10 minutes extra on the day of the seminar. Please contact Joe Barsugli (303-497-6042) or Barbara Herrli (303-497-3876) at least a day before the seminar if you have any questions.