ESRL/PSD Seminar Series

Abstract

In this study decadal (≥ 10 years) sea level variations in the Indian Ocean (IO) during 1950-2012 are investigated using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). The solution of the main run (MR) agrees well with observations in the western-to-central IO. Results of HYCOM experiments reveal large spatial variations in the mechanisms of decadal sea level variability. Within the tropical IO (north of 20°S), decadal sea level variations achieve the maximal amplitude in the South IO thermocline ridge region. They are predominantly forced by decadal fluctuations of surface wind stress associated with climate variability modes, while the impact of other processes is much smaller. The Somali coast and the western Bay of Bengal are two exceptional regions, where ocean internal (unforced) variability has large contribution. Between 28°S-20°S in the subtropical South IO, surface heat flux and ocean internal variability are the major drivers of decadal sea level variability. Heat budget analysis for the upper 300 m of this region suggests that surface heat flux affects regional thermosteric sea level through both local surface heating and heat transport by ocean circulation. In the southwest IO south of 30°S, where stochastic winds are strong, stochastic wind forcing and its interaction with ocean internal variability generate pronounced decadal variations in sea level. The comprehensive investigation of decadal sea level variability over the IO from an oceanic perspective will contribute to decadal sea level prediction effort which has a high societal demand.