Modeling Programs

Modeling programs at ETL focus on the verification and improvement of atmospheric and oceanic models through the use of research quality observations.

Air Quality Modeling

Weather-Chemistry Air Quality Model Evaluation

To improve regional air quality forecasts, it is essential to assess the performance of air quality models which couple weather prediction and atmospheric chemistry . ETL has participated in several field programs to evaluate the regional performance of these models.

Weather-Chemistry Coupled Model Evaluation

In order to improve regional air quality forecasts, it is essential to assess the performance of models which couple weather prediction and atmospheric chemistry. ETL participates in field programs which deploy networks of sensors, aircraft and ships to observe the parameters driving regional meteorology and air chemistry. The air quality models are then run with and without the additional observations to assess the accuracy of their predictions.

Model Assessment Results
Related Field Programs

Central California Ozone Study (CCOS) Model Verification

ETL participates in an ongoing program of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) whose goal is to more completely understand and predict urban and regional-scale ozone episodes, through the development of better meteorological and aerometric observational data bases and improvement of numerical simulation models. These observations and models will form the scientific basis for the development of appropriate emission control strategies to help California meet regulatory requirements for state and federal 1-hour as well as federal 8-hour ozone standards.

Numerical Modeling of Climate-Weather Interaction

While climate change research has focused on planetary scale environmental change, climate change can have a severe impact on regional weather, hydrology and air quality. In order to better anticipate and mitigate the regional impact of climate, ETL is seeking to close the climate-weather gap through the development of programs addressing regional scale variability through observation, modeling and analysis. Weather-Climate programs at ETL include studying the enhancement or suppression of the water cycle, the variation of temperature and air quality and arctic processes.

Understanding the Dynamic Link Between Tropical Climate Variation and Winter Storms Along the US West Coast
Satellite observations of the Pacific reveal bands of enhanced water vapor associated with the wintertime extratropical cyclones which produce most of the precipitation on the U. S. West Coast. Understanding the origins and development of these bands may aid regional short-term weather forecasting and seasonal precipitation predictions.

Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

In traditional models of the atmosphere, the influence of the ocean on the atmosphere is limited to providing the bottom boundary condition in terms of sea surface temperature (SST). It has become increasingly clear that the the two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere must be accounted for in order to better predict environmental events in coastal regions.

A Numerical Investigation of the Impact of Air-Sea Interaction on Hurricane Intensification
In this study, a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system is used to simulate air-sea interaction under the high wind conditions of a hurricane. Results from these studies with and without sea-spray effect show that the inclusion of sea-spray evaporation can significantly increase hurricane intensity.

Development and Testing of Parmeterizations of Air-Sea Energy Fluxes under High Wind Conditions

Numerical Model Physics Development and Verification

Numerical models are computer approximations of the natural environment. In order to apply these models to increasingly complex issues, they must be tested and tuned. ETL is applying its extensive experience in Boundary Layer (BL) observation to improve the accuracy of boundary layer modeling.

Development and Testing of a New Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) Scheme in WRF

Development of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) Parametrizations for Weather and Air-Quality Predictions on Fine Scales

Model Verification

Model validation programs compare the direct measurement of meteorological properties (wind speed, wind direction and temperature) to the prediction of those properties made by numerical forecast models. By comparing the prediction to the actual event, inaccuracies in models can be identified and forecasts can be improved.

New England High Resolution Temperature Program (NEHRTP) Winter 2004-2005 North East Region September 15, 2004 - Data
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Summer 2004 East Coast July - August 2004 Data
New England High Resolution Temperature Program (NEHRTP) Summer 2004 North East Region July - September 15, 2004 Data
Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT) Winter 2003-2004 West Coast December 19, 2003 - March 22, 2004 Data
New England High Resolution Temperature Program (NEHRTP) Winter 2003-2004 North East Region September 16, 2003 - June 30, 2004 Data
New England High Resolution Temperature Program (NEHRTP) Summer 2003 North East Region July 1, 2003 - September 15, 2003 Data
New England Temperature Air Quality Pilot Study (TAQ) Winter 2002-2003 North East Region September 1, 2002 - June 30, 2003 Data
PACJET 2002-2003 West Coast December 18, 2002 - March 1, 2003 Data
New England Temperature Air Quality Pilot Study (TAQ) Summer North East Region July 15, 2002 - August 31, 2002 Data