Project Status: 1 Feb 2007
Weather Status: Not much change in the situation as the upper ridge continues to be a prominent blocking feature off the coast. Long range forecasts are in agreement that the ridge moves westward at high latitudes allowing midlevel flow to begin to undercut and move into the coast. There is still much divergence among the models so the timing and details are unknown. Best guess today is a wave in the area on Feb 7. Models however, are ambiguous on whether this will be southern or northern CA. ECMWF indicates a possible series of events from the 7th to the 13th. Beyond that there is some indication from the longrange GFS ensemble that the ridge could try to reestablish itself. Don't want to hear this! Bottom line: no IOP for the next 5 days.
System Status: No reports today.
John McGinley, ESRL/GSD