Project Status: 30 Jan 2007
Weather Status: The ridge off the coast will sustain northerly flow aloft over the HMT region. A few short waves imbedded in this flow could cause some episodes of very light rain. Looking forward, the ensembles and set of global models are indicating a change in the regime by 5-6 Feb. It is unclear, however, how this will evolve. WR indicated that there are many uncertainties with the Pacific flow. The ensemble set is highly variable in the timing of a particular system. So we look toward the weekend expecting a change to begin and will stick with the expectation of a possible IOP near the 6th of Feb. Beyond the 6th the flow is more zonal on the coast and thus the outlook for the second week of Feb might be for a very active period.
System Status: Workstation training for the high resolution model probabilities will be conducted the next time rain is in the area. This could be during one of the light rain events expected with the northerly flow regime. We will try to give 24h notice. Time will be at 9am PST as requested.
John McGinley, ESRL/GSD