Project Status: 29 Jan 2007
Weather Status: The closed-off low continues to drift southward and becomes more irrelevant to the HMT each day. Ridge off the coast continues to dominate the weather over central California effectively blocking any troughs or moist surges into the area. This looks likely to continue for the next 5-6 days. Some hope is on the horizon as each global model run and associated ensemble members are weakening the ridge and propagating it eastward after 4 Feb. Significant tropical moisture mid Pacific, continues to move east and north so could phase nicely with the eastward shift of the ridge and increased SW flow over the ARB. Westward redevelopment of the tropical convection in the W. Pacific near 140E will help to rerograde the longwave ridge to a position nearer the dateline at high latitudes. At the same time the short wave component of the ridge will move eastward. This supports the idea that upper level flow will undercut the longwave feature and become southwesterly over the coast and open the door for a possible IOP in the 5-6 Feb time frame.
System status: Monterey WFO has its workstation up and running today. Stage is set for workstation and model training for RNO, SAC and MTY (TBD). GSD ensembles running well. No updates on Oakland supplemental soundings.
John McGinley, ESRL/GSD