Project Status: 28 Jan 2007
Weather Status: Closed low on the coast this morning drifted further south than expected. IPW values are maxed out at 0.6 in. This produced precipitation well south of the ARB. This low has an imbedded short wave that will push precip a little further north today along the Sierras. The NAM and two GSD ensemble members suggest this, but again too far south. The closed off low continues to drift SE. It will entrain a weak short wave moving in from the north that will sustain its strength for a day or two. The only hope for an IOP is in the long term. All global models are indicating a full-latitudinal ridge off the coast staying in place through at least Feb 3. The good news is that subtropical IPW is increasing and moving north and east. Once the ridge gives way moisture should be ready to move into central CA. The GFS ensemble is looking optimistic as about half the members are indicating the ridge moving easward with decreasing amplitude, opening the door for WSW flow into the area 5-6 Feb. The bad news is that this means no IOP for more than a week.
System Status:Chris Anderson reported the problems with Jet have been corrected and the ensemble is up and running again at full capability.
John McGinley, ESRL/GSD