Waiting for a break through?
The following are a few annotated images to "prep us" for tomorrow's extended discussion. We will probabaly add a few more slides. Tropical forcing remains concentrated around 5-10S/160E (putting the USA in a cold regime) while SPCZ starts to "heat up" again. Meanwhile activity continues to slowly increase from South Africa into the South Indian Ocean. As the anticyclonic anomaly around Alaska continues northwest, increasing subtropical flow looks more probable to impact the ARB region during week 2. If we would have had the "classic El-Nino" response, the polar and subtropical jets would have combined across the east Pacific (see slide 2).
Ed Berry and Klaus Weickmann