HMT Forecast Sat 2/24/2007
Here is the predicted liquid equivalent precipitation and elevation of the rain/snow line, based mostly on NAM and GFS 12Z runs. (Sorry I couldn't look at more, my basement flooded and I'm darn glad to get done what I did.)
Sun 00Z, T, 3800 ft
Sun 12Z, .80", 3600 ft
Mon 00Z, 1.2", 3400 ft
Mon 12Z, .6", 3400 ft
Tue 00Z, .8", 3400 ft
Until this point we've had onshore flow characterized by good precipitable water and little baroclinic structure. Model thickness hovers around 540 in the general area, but precipitation cooling in this regime causes a 3 kdm depression for precip rates over .5/12hr. I'll be interested to see what this does to the rain/snow line.
Sometime after sundown Monday the cold front goes through, there's nice dynamic lift enhancing the orographic effects, and the rain/snow line really plunges.
Tue 12Z, 1.5", 2300 ft
Wed 00Z, T, 1800 ft
Wed 12Z, T, 1500 ft
After this there is lingering precipitation and cold air, but not IOP weather for a few days. Next chance: early next week.
Paul Schultz