HMT Forecast Mon 2/26/2007
I have to hand it to the GFS, it has been doing a very good, very consistent job at forecasting IOP7 since I came on duty last Thursday. I've made nothing but minor changes to the amounts, timing, or snow levels on this event since then.
So: another .7 inch of precip between now and 00Z Tuesday, with rain/snow levels mostly 3400-3600 ft. Then the cold front goes through about sundown, the precipitation increases to .7 inches per 6h all night long starting at 00Z or so, and the snow level drips markedly to below 2000 ft by sunrise, maybe as low as 1200 ft in some places. Precipitation stops right about sunrise and lays off for 12 hrs or so, picking up atgin Tuesday evening around 00Z. Then it looks like pretty healthy precipitation overnight Wednesday into Thursday, maybe another inch overnight, with very low snow levels for the entire time. Note that the GFS starts the precip a few hours earlier than the NAM, ends it sooner, and produces a bit more precip.
Paul Schultz