Hope is on the horizon....always on the horizon!
The active tropical convective forcing has shifted to ~140-160E while weakening has occurred across the South Pacific, especially along the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Circulation anomalies over the PNA sector are retrograding as a response. There is a possibility of renewed MJO activity across the southwest Indian Ocean by the end of week 2 while forcing remains centered ~10S/160E. This situation would be more favorable to moist west and southwest flow for ARB.
Ed Berry and Klaus Weickmann