CALJET Workshop Agenda
June 8 - June 10, 1998
Boulder, Colorado

20 minutes are provided for each presentation, including 3-5 min for questions and discussion.  Additional time is set aside at the end of each session for further discussion.  There is no registration fee.

Monday 8 June
Marty Ralph
Meeting goals and brief CALJET
John Gaynor
A Review of Other Measurements Made During The NOAA EL Niņo Rapid Response Activity
Session A: Operational experiences and needs during winter 1997/98
Session Chair: Jon Mittelstadt
1:40-2:00 Owen Rhea
Hydrologic summary from the California-Nevada River Forecast Center
2:00-2:20 Boni Bigornia
The "New" Impacts of Forecasting on California Water Management
2:20-2:40 Jim Giraytys
FEMA experiences during the El Niņo and the use of the forecasts
2:40-3:00 Jim McFadden
Aircraft use during CALJET and NORPEX, and status of the data
3:00-3:20 Tracy Cox
CALJET interaction with NWSFO MTR's Warning Program: Feb. 2-3, '98
3:20-4:00 Break
4:00-4:20 Jay Rosenthal
Forecast problems in coastal Southern California
4:20-4:40 Greg Martin
S. California forecast experiences and needs during the 97/98 El Niņo
4:40-5:00 Bill Forewood
A brief description of winter97-98 and its effect on Northwest California
5:00-5:30 Discussion
  • What were the most serious forecast needs and problems in California this last winter?
  • How might these needs and problems be better met in the future?
Tuesday 9 June
Session B: Issues in numerical modeling and targeting

Session Chair: Jian-Wen Bao
8:00-8:20 Mel Shapiro
NORPEX overview and results
8:20-8:40 Jian-Wen Bao
Use of the MM5 adjoint model in CALJET planning and research
8:40-9:00 Istvan Szunyogh
Ensemble-based targeting experiments during CALJET
9:00-9:20 Jerry Schmidt
Verification of COAMPS moist physics
9:20-9:40 Warren Blier
A remarkable heavy precipitation event in S. CA:  Observations and mesoscale simulations
9:40-10:00 Discussion
  • What parameters output from numerical models are used most frequently by forecasters at local NWS offices, and what parameters important for local forecasting are poorly described by numerical models?
  • Should we try to develop a coordinated effort to evaluate the effectiveness of different data assimilation methods in short-term coastal QPF?
10:00-10:30 Break
Session C: Coastal microphysics and dynamics
Session Chair: Ola Persson
10:30-10:50 Owen Rhea
Use and expansion of an orographic QPF aid
10:50-11:10 John Hallett
Giant nuclei in drizzle and precipitation: Initiation of coalescence
11:10-11:30 Dave Kingsmill
Microphysical observations during CALJET and their application to precipitation monitoring by the WSR-88D
11:30-11:50 Allen White
The 3 GHz radar at Cazadero
11:50-1:00 Lunch
1:00-1:20 Jack Dostalek
Satellite observations of eastern Pacific cyclones during CALJET
1:20-1:40 Ola Persson
Airborne observations of the structure and the vertical stability of the low-level jet in two CALJET cyclones
1:40-2:00 Clark King
West coast boundary layer structure in land-falling winter storms
2:00-2:20 Paul Neiman
Coastal frontal occlusions
2:20-2:40 Marty Ralph
The blocking front
2:40-3:00 A.Shapiro
Doppler on Wheels research goals
3:00-3:20 J. Wurman
Doppler on Wheels measurement capabilities and data summary
3:20-3:50 Discussion
  • Is the seeder-feeder mechanism the paradigm for heavy coastal rain?
  • What important modifications to this mechanism should or will be examined?
  • What microphysical precipitation information would be of most use to real-time forecasting?
  • What features found within storms before landfall are critical for understanding heavy coastal rains and winds and ultimately for better predicting them?
  • Knowledge of what offshore aspects of the storms are most useful in real-time forecasting?
4:30-8:30 PM Catered picnic at Walker Ranch picnic area ($16 per adult).
Wednesday 10 June
Session D: El Niņo and coastal air-sea interaction

Session Chair:  Jim Wilczak
8:00-8:20 Klaus Wolter
ENSO impacts on California precipitation
8:20-8:40 Jeff Whitaker
Assessing the impact of El Niņo on individual weather systems:   Experiments with the MRF ensemble
8:40-9:00 Ola Persson
Airborne measurements of air-sea fluxes obtained in the eastern extratropical Pacific Ocean during an El Nino winter: Motivation, strategy and observational summary
9:00-9:20 Bernie Walter
Preconditioning by surface fluxes ahead of a developing cyclone
9:20-9:40 John Bane
Ocean and atmospheric boundary layer measurements off Southern California
9:40-10:00 Jim Wilczak
Upper-ocean thermal structure and its influence on land-falling storms during CALJET
10:00-10:20 Discussion
  • When did the impacts of El Niņo start along the coast of California?
  • What is an El Nino Storm?
10:20-10:50 Break
10:50-12:15 Wrap up discussion
  • What is the status of various datasets?
  • What are the needs and mechanisms for data exchange?

Recommendations for analysis and modeling approaches:

  • What analyses should be done to better understand precipitation mechanisms along the coast?
  • What role does the LLJ play in causing heavy precipitation and damaging winds?
  • What governs the development or absence of damaging winds at the coast in land-falling storms? 
  • How should the accuracy of numerical weather forecasts be assessed?
  • What strategies to use to test the impact of experimental data on numerical weather prediction?
  • What aspects of CALJET and NORPEX were most valuable to operational forecasters?
  • How could the strategies for data collection and operational use be improved?
  • Would it be feasible and useful to couple a mesoscale model with a hydrological model to predict floods and or better manage water resources?

Outline of a BAMS article

CALJET | Agenda