2007 AMS Short Course on Ensemble Forecasting
Presentations and links
8:30 Arrival and
Introductions (Hamill, ppt) (pdf here)
8:45 Theory behind ensemble
forecasting (Hansen, ppt, pdf
here)
fly.mpg
imperf_ens.mpg
L.mpg
perf_ens.mpg
threepanels.mpg
trajectory.mpg
fullfield.mpg
9:30 Basic
concepts of probability and statistics (Hamill, ppt; pdf here)
10:30 Chaos
forecast
exercise (Eckel, xls)
11:00 Ensemble
forecasting 1: making and verifying (Hamill, ppt; pdf here)
11:30 Ensemble forecasting
2: problems
with ensembles (Eckel, ppt, pdf here)
1:15 Ensemble
forecasting 3: viewing, interpreting EFs (Bright, ppt pdf here)
2:15 Lab prep
2:45 Lab
(Bright, web page)
4:10 Examples of
incorporating uncertainty (Mahoney, ppt)
BONUS! Rebecca Morss's Broadcast Conference presentation
on communicating uncertainty