2007 AMS Short Course on Ensemble Forecasting

Presentations and links

8:30 Arrival and Introductions (Hamill, ppt) (pdf here)

8:45 Theory behind ensemble forecasting (Hansen, ppt, pdf here)

fly.mpg
imperf_ens.mpg
L.mpg
perf_ens.mpg
threepanels.mpg
trajectory.mpg
fullfield.mpg

9:30 Basic concepts of probability and statistics (Hamill, ppt; pdf here)

10:30  Chaos forecast exercise (Eckel, xls)

11:00  Ensemble forecasting 1: making and verifying (Hamill, ppt; pdf here)

11:30 Ensemble forecasting 2:  problems with ensembles (Eckel, ppt, pdf here)

1:15 Ensemble forecasting 3: viewing, interpreting EFs (Bright, ppt pdf here)

2:15 Lab prep

2:45 Lab (Bright, web page)

4:10 Examples of incorporating uncertainty (Mahoney, ppt)

BONUS!  Rebecca Morss's Broadcast Conference presentation on communicating uncertainty