Current PSD (Web/Data Status). PSD has undergone major URL restructuring so that all URLs start with http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ (More Info).
[an error occurred while processing this directive]
Tom Hamill's Home Page
NOAA Earth
System Research Laboratory
Physical Sciences Division
Phone: (303) 497-3060
E-mail: tom.hamill@noaa.gov
Curriculum Vitae
2007 AMS Ensemble Prediction Short Course
Recently Submitted Manuscripts and Documents
- What Constrains Spread
Growth in Forecasts Initialized from Ensemble Kalman Filters? (MWR,
submitted)
- TIGGE article (BAMS, conditionally
accepted)
- Evaluation of the “Bayesian Processor of Forecasts” Algorithm Using GFS Surface-Temperature Reforecasts (MWR, rejected!)
- A comparison of the hybrid and EnSRF analysis schemes in the presence of model error due to unresolved scales. (MWR submitted)
- DRAFT of solutions chapter for AMS Ad-Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts doc
- A hybrid ETKF-3DVAR data assimilation scheme for the WRF model. Part I: observing system simulation experiment. (MWR, in press)
- A hybrid ETKF-3DVAR data assimilation scheme for the WRF model. Part II: real observation experiments. (MWR, in press)
- Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. Part I: 2-meter temperature (MWR, July 2008)
- Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation (MWR, July 2008)
- Making the AMS carbon neutral: offsetting the cost of flying to conferences (BAMS, Nov 2007 issue)
- Ensemble calibration of 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa and 2-meter temperatures using reforecasts. (MWR)
- HEPEX, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (BAMS, in press)
- Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods using GFS reforecasts (MWR)
- NOAA White Paper on Reforecasting
- Comments on "Calibrated Surface Temperature forecasts from the Canadian ensemble prediction system ... (MWR)
- Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or is it the varying climatology? (QJRMS)
- On the theoretical equivalence of differently proposed ensemble/3D-Var hybrid analysis schemes (MWR)
Some Recent Presentations
- WGNE overview of ensemble research, 2008-2009 pptx pdf
- State estimation using EnKF (review for U. Heidelberg) pptx ppt pdf
- FIM ensemble TC statistics ppt
- THORPEX TTISS presentation on spread growth in EnKF ppt
- THORPEX TTISS presentation on TIGGE vs. ECMWF/reforecast
calibration ppt
- FIM hurricane web display ppt
- What constrains spread growth in forecasts initialized from
ensemble filters? (THORPEX Monterey, May 09) ppt
- Ensemble forecasting for ESRL MAG ppt
- Reforecasts for ISI ppt
- Reforecast overview, Nov 2008 ppt
- WGNE 2008 presentation on ensemble predition ppt
- Covariance localization overview for Buenos Aires EnKF/4D-Var WMO
meeting ppt
- THORPEX context brief for ESRL Weather-Climate Group ppt
- Covariance localization review for 4D-Var/EnKF meeting in Buenos
Aires ppt
- Six different review presentations on ensemble forecasting to the
Mediterranean School of Mesoscale Meteorology, 2008 html
- Critical review of Bayesian Processor of Forecasts technique
using GFS reforecasts pdf
- Reforecasting applied to short-range forecasts of the Indian
Monsoon ppt
- Visualization of ensemble forecasts (for ESRL/GSD's AWIPS group) ppt
- Overview of AMS Ad-Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts to Broadcast Convention, 2008 ppt
- Overview of ensembles for use in hydrologic forecasting, COMET course 2008 ppt
- Training sample size issues for week-2 and week-3 forecasts (for
CTB) ppt
- Washington Climate Impacts Group Refcst ppt
- ECMWF reforecast talk (1 hour) pdf ppt
- ECMWF reforecast talk (1/2 hour) pdf ppt
- ECMWF skill overforecast talk pdf ppt
- Seasonal climate prediction overview for NCAR Terrestrial Hydromet Workshop, 2007 ppt
- ECMWF reforecast calibration (IUGG, 2007) ppt
- Flow-dependent covariances in ensemble data assimilation (IUGG,
2007) ppt
- Reforecast presentation to NOAA NFUSE ppt
- Calibration of high-res. precipitation forecasts for Hydromet
Test Bed ppt
- Ensemble forecast verification overview for 2007 NCAR
verification workshop ppt
- Reforecast overview for NCEP ensemble workshop ppt
- Reforecasting with the ECMWF and NCEP GFS (IUGG)> ppt pdf
- Effect of Flow-Dependent Covariances in EnsDA (IUGG)> ppt pdf
- Reforecasting and Probabilistic Weather-Climate Prediction (May
2007 @Norman, OK) (ppt pdf )
- Ensemble Weather Forecasting and PQPF: Using Reforecasts (May
2007, COMET) (ppt pdf)
- Improving PQPFs over California using Water Vapor Flux as
Predictor (April 2007, NCEP/HPC) (ppt pdf)
- ECMWF Temperature Reforecast (NCEP/GMB) (ppt pdf)
- Reforecast Overview for Denver/Boulder NWS (ppt)
- Ensemble forecasting overview for COMET (ppt)
- Reforecast Overview for Metro State AMS and Statistics Chapters (ppt)
- Ensemble forecast overview for NAS/NRC panel on forecast uncertainty (ppt)
- Reforecast Overview for NCEP Predictability Meeting, Nov 2006 (pdf)
- Ensemble Forecasting Introduction (HEPEX, ECMWF)
- May 2003 Extended Tornado Outbreak (ppt)
- Park City reforecast presentation
- Model error in Ensemble DA presentation (THORPEX, DC, Jan 06)
- Reforecast, AMS Annual '06 (ppt)
- Skill Overforecast, AMS Annual '06 (ppt)
- Ensemble DA in GFS, AMS Annual '06 (ppt)
- Ensemble DA, ECMWF (pdf)
- Perturbing Soil Moisture in EF, AMS Annual '06 (ppt)
- CPC Reforecast Combo presentation (pdf)