Martin P. Hoerling
Meteorologist

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Physical Sciences Division

325 Broadway, R/PSD1
Boulder, CO 80305-3328
Work phone: (303) 497-6165
Fax: (303) 497-6449
Email: Martin.Hoerling@noaa.gov

Education

Positions

2005-Present Meteorologist, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado
  • Deputy Branch Chief for Research, Climate Analysis Branch
  • Lead, NOAA Interpreting Climate Conditions Team
1999-2005 Meteorologist, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, Colorado
  • Project Leader on Seasonal-to-Internanual Research
  • Decadal climate variability and climate change
1989-1999 Research Associate, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado
  • Climate variability and the role of air-sea interactions
  • General circulation modeling of the atmospheric response to tropical sea surface temperature anomalies
1987-1989 Research Associate, Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin
  • Climate variations related to tropical diabatic forcing
  • Diagnosing diabatic heating and its role in climate
  • Stratospheric-tropospheric exchange
1987-1988 Lecturer, Department of Meteorology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin
1983-1987 Research Assistant, Doctoral Student, Department of Meteorology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin.
  • Ph.D. awarded May, 1987, thesis titled "The global balance of dynamic vorticity in relation to heat sources and sinks."

Grants

Awards

Service Activities

Principal Refereed Journal Publications

Hoerling, M. P., T. K. Schaack and A. J. Lenzen, 1991: Global objective tropopause analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1816-1831.
Hoerling, M. P., M. L. Blackmon and M. Ting, 1992: Simulating the atmospheric response to the 1985-87 El Niño cycle. J. Climate., 5, 665-682.
Hoerling, M. P., 1992: Diabatic sources of potential vorticity in the general circulation. J. Atmos. Sci.., 49, 2282-2292.
Hoerling, M. P., T. K. Schaack and A. J. Lenzen, 1993: A global analysis of stratospheric-tropospheric exchange during northern winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 162-172.
Ting, M., and M. P. Hoerling, 1993: Dynamics of stationary wave anomalies during the 1986/87 El Niño. Climate Dynamics, 9, 147-164.
Hoerling, M. P., L. Sanford, and J. Hurrell, 1993: Diagnosis and sensitivity of the wintertime 200mb circulation in NCAR CCMs. NCAR Tech. Report, NCAR/TN-394+STR, Boulder, CO., 68 pp.
Hoerling, M. P., and M. Ting, 1994: On the organization of extratropical transients during El Niño. J. Climate, 7, 745-766.
Kumar, A., and M. P. Hoerling, 1995: Prospects and limitations of seasonal atmospheric GCM predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 335-345.
Hoerling, M. P., M. Ting, and A. Kumar, 1995: Zonal flow-stationary wave relationship during El Niño: Implications for seasonal forecasting. J. Climate, 8, 1838-1852.
Kumar, A., M. P. Hoerling, M. Ji, A. Leetmaa, and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1996: Assessing a GCM's suitability for making seasonal predictions. J. Climate, 9, 115-129.
Ting, M., M. P. Hoerling, T.-Y. Xu, and A. Kumar, 1996: Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns during extreme phases of the zonal mean circulation. J. Climate, 9, 2614-2623.
Kumar, A., and M. P. Hoerling, 1997: Interpretation and implications of observed inter-El Niño variability. J. Climate, 10, 83-91.
Hoerling, M. P., and A. Kumar, 1997: Why do North American climate anomalies differ from one El Niño event to another? Geophys. Res. Lett, 24, 1059-1062.
Hoerling, M. P., A. Kumar, and M. Zhong, 1997: El Niño, La Niña, and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections. J. Climate, 10, 1769-1786.
Peng, S., W. A. Robinson, and M. P. Hoerling, 1997: The modeled atmospheric response to midlatitude SST anomalies and its dependence on background circulation states. J. Climate, 10, 971-987.
Hoerling, M. P., and A. Kumar, 1997: Origins of extreme climate states during the 1982-83 ENSO winter. J. Climate, 10, 2859-2870.
Kumar, A., and M. P. Hoerling, 1998: On the specification of regional SSTs in AGCM simulations. J. Geophy. Res., 8901-8907.
Kumar, A, and M. P. Hoerling, 1998: Annual cycle of Pacific/North American seasonal predictability associated with different phases of ENSO. J. Climate, 11, 3295-3308.
Hoerling, M. P., and A. Kumar, 2000: Understanding and Predicting Extratropical Teleconnections Related to ENSO. Chapter 2 (pp 57-88) in "El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Multi-scale Variability, and Global and Regional Impacts [eds. H. Diaz and V. Markgraf], Cambridge University Press, 496 pp.
Kumar, A, and M. P. Hoerling, 2000: Analysis of a conceptual model of seasonal climate variability and implications for seasonal prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 255-264.
Ting, M., M. P. Hoerling, T. Xu, and A. Kumar, 2000: Reply to Comments on "Northern Hemisphere teleconnections patterns during extreme phases of the zonal-mean circulation". J. Climate, 13, 1040-1043.
Kumar, A, A. Barnston, P. Peng, M. Hoerling, and L. Goddard, 2000: Changes in ths spread of the seasonal mean atmospheric states associated with ENSO J. Climate, 13, 3139-3151.
Kumar, A., A. G. Barnston, and M. P. Hoerling, 2000: Seasonal predictability, probabilistic verifications, and ensemble size. J. Climate, 14,1671-1676.
Hoerling, M. P., A. Kumar, and T.-Y. Xu, 2001: Robustness of the nonlinear atmospheric response to opposite phases of ENSO. J. Climate, 14, 1277-1293.
Kumar, A, W. Wang, M. P. Hoerling, A. Leetmaa, and M. Ji, 2001: The sustained North American warming of 1997 and 1998. J. Climate, 14, 345-353.
Hoerling, M. P., A. Kumar, J. S. Whitaker, and W. Wang, 2001: The midlatitude warming during 1998-2000.Geophys. Res. Letters, 28, 755-758.
Hoerling, M. P., J. Hurrell, and T. Xu, 2001: Tropical origins for North Atlantic climate change. Science, 292, 90-92.
Chen, P., M. P. Hoerling, and R. M. Dole, 2000: On the origin of summertime subtropical anticyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1827-1835.
Bates, G. T., M. P. Hoerling, and A. Kumar, 2001: Central US Springtime precipitation extremes: Teleconnections and relationships with sea surface temepratures. J. Climate, 14, 3751-3766.
Diaz, H. F., M. P. Hoerling, and J. K. Eischeid, 2001: ENSO variability, teleconnections, and climate change. Int. J. Climatol., 21, 1869-1886.
Hurrell, J., M. Hoerling, and C. Folland, 2002: Climate variability over the North Atlantic. Part 2. (pp. 143-150) in "Meteorology at the Millenium" [ed. R. Pearce], Academic Press 330 pp.
Hoerling, M. P., and A. Kumar, 2002: Atmospheric response patterns associated with tropical forcing. J. Climate,15, 2184-2203.
Kumar, A., and M. P. Hoerling, 2003 The nature and causes for the delayed atmospheric response to El Niño. J. Climate, 16, 1391-1403.
Hoerling, M. P., and A. Kumar, 2003: Seasonal and interannual weather prediction. In Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, J. R. Holton, J. Pyle, and J. A. Curry (Eds.), Academic Press, 2562-2567.
Hoerling, M. P., and A. Kumar, 2003: The perfect ocean for drought. Science, 299, 691-694.
Hurrell J.W., M. P. Hoerling, A. Phillips, and T. Xu, 2004: Twentieth Century North Atlantic climate change. Part I: Assessing determinism. Climate Dyn. 23, 375-390.
Hoerling M.P., J. W. Hurrell , T. Xu , G. T. Bates, and A. Phillips, 2004: Twentieth Century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming. Climate Dyn. 23, 391-405.
Liebmann, B., C. Vera, L. Carvalho, I. Camilloni, M. Hoerling, D. Allured, M. Bidegain, J. Baez,and V. Barros, 2004: An observed trend in Central South American precipitation. J. Climate, 17, 4357-4367.
Quan, X.W., H.F. Diaz, and M.P. Hoerling, 2004: Change of the Hadley circulation since 1950.
The Hadley Circulation: Past, Present, and Future edited by H.F. Diaz and R.S. Bradley, Cambridge Universty Press. (Chapter 3).
Barnston A, A Kumar, L Goddard, and M Hoerling, 2005: Improving seasonal prediction practices through attribution of climate variability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 59-72.
Peng, S, W. Robinson, S. Li, and M. Hoerling, 2005: Tropical Atlantic SST forcing of coupled North Atlantic seasonal responses. J. Climate, 18, 480-496.
Jain, S., M. Hoerling, and J. Eischeid, 2005: Decreasing reliability and increasing synchroneity of western North American stream flow. Journal of Climate, 18, 613-618.
Krishna Kumar, K, M Hoerling, and B. Rajagopalan: 2005: Advancing Indian monsoon rainfall predictions. Geophys. Res. Letters, 32, L08704, doi:10.1029/2004GL021979.
Li, S, M Hoerling, and S. Peng: 2006: Coupled ocean-atmosphere response to Indian Ocean warmth. Geophys. Res. Letters, 33, L07713, doi:10.1029/2005GL025558.
Li, S., M. Hoerling, S. Peng and K. Weickmann, 2006: The annular response to tropical Pacific SST forcing. J. Climate, 19, 1802-1819.
Quan, X., M. Hoerling, J. Whitaker, G. Bates, and T. Xu, 2006: Diagnosing sources of U.S. seasonal forecast skill. J. Climate, 19, 3279-3293.
Hoerling, M., J. Hurrell, and J. Eischeid, 2006: Detection and attribution of 20th Century northern and southern African rainfall change. J. Climate, 19, 3989-4008.
Goddard, L., A. Kumar, M.Hoerling, and A. Barnston, 2006: Diagnosis of anomalous winter temperatures over the eastern United States during rhe 2002/03 Rl Niño. J. Climate, 19: 5624-5636.
Hoerling, M. P., A.Kumar, T. Xu, G. Bates and B. Jha, 2006: Warm oceans warm land temperatures. Eos Trans. AGU, 87, 189-193.
Krishna Kumar, K., B. Rajagopalan, M. Hoerling, G. Bates, and M. Cane, 2006: Unraveling the mystery of Indian Monsoon Failure during El Niño. Science, 314, 115-119.
Goddard, L. and M. Hoerling, 2006: Practices for seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. CLIVAR Variations, 4, 1-5.
Hoerling, M, J.Eischeid, X. Quan,and T. Xu, 2007: Explaining the record 2006 US warmth. Geophys. Res. Letters, 34, doi:10.1029/2007GL030643.
Hoerling, M., and J. Eischeid, 2007: Past peak water in the West. Southwest Hydrology, Vol 6, No. 1, 18-19.
Li, S., J. Perlwitz, X. Quan, and M. P. Hoerling. 2008: Modelling the influence of North Atlantic multidecadal warmth on the Indian summer rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L05804, doi:10.1029/2007GL032901.
Krishna Kumar, K., K. Kamala, B.Rajagopalan, M. Hoerling J. Eischeid, S. K. Patwardhan, G. Srinivasan, and R. Nemani, 2008: The Once and Future Pulse of Indian Monsoonal Climate. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci, conditionally accepted.
Hoerling, M., A. Kumar, J. Eischeid, and B. Jha, 2008: What is causing the variability in global land temperature? Geophys. Res. Letters, in review.
Neff, W., J. Perlwitz, and M. Hoerling, 2008: Observational Evidence for Asymmetric Changes in Tropospheric Heights over Antarctica on Decadal Time Scales. Geophys. Res. Letters, in press.
Hoerling, M., A.Kumar, J. Eischeid, and B.Jha, 2008: What is causing the variability in global mean land temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, doi:10.1029/2008GL035984.
CCSP SAP 1.3, 2008: Reanalysis of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Randall Dole, Martin Hoerling, and Siegfried Schubert (eds.)]. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 156 pp.
Wang, H., S. Schubert, M. Suarez, J. Chen, M. Hoerling, A. Kumar, P. Pegion, 2009: Attribution of the seasonality and regionality in climate trends over the United States during 1950-2000. J. Climate, 22, 2571-2590.
Hoerling, M., X. Quan, and J. Eischeid: 2009: Distinct causes for principal US droughts of the 20th Century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, in review.
NOAA CSI Team, 2008: The influence of SSTs on global land temperatures. [in "State of the Climate in 2007. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., S1-S135.
NOAA CSI Team, 2008: Diagnosis of cause(s) for 2007 US precipitatin [in "State of the Climate in 2007. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., S1-S135.
Rajagolpolan, B., K. Nowak, J.Prairie, M. Hoerling, B. Harding, J. Barsugli, A. Ray, and B. Udall, 2009: Water supply risk on the Colorado River: Can management mitigate? Water Resources Res., 45, W08201, doi:10.1029/2008WR007652
Neff, W., J. Perlwitz, and M. Hoerling (2008), Observational evidence for asymmetric changes in tropospheric heights over Antarctica on decadal time scales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18703, doi:10.1029/2008GL035074.
NOAA CSI Team, 2009: Factors causing the 2008 U.S. coolness. [in "State of the Climate in 2008"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90 (7), S1-S196.
Hoerling, M., X. Quan, and J. Eischeid (2009), Distinct causes for two principal U.S. droughts of the 20th century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19708, doi:10.1029/2009GL039860.
Perlwitz, J., M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, T. Xu, and A. Kumar (2009), A strong bout of natural cooling in 2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23706, doi:10.1029/2009GL041188.
IPCC, 2009: Meeting Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Expert Meeting on Detection and Attribution Related to Anthropogenic Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., C.B. Field, D. Qin, V. Barros, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, P.M. Midgley, and K.L. Ebi (eds.)]. IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, pp. xx.
Hegerl, G.C., O. Hoegh-Guldberg, G. Casassa, M.P. Hoerling, R.S. Kovats, C. Parmesan, D.W. Pierce, P.A. Stott, 2009: Good Practice Guidance Paper on Detection and Attribution Related to Anthropogenic Climate Change. In: Meeting Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Expert Meeting on Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., C.B. Field, D. Qin, V. Barros, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, P.M. Midgley, and K.L. Ebi (eds.)]. IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Hoerling, M., Lettenmaier, D., Cayan D., and B. Udall (2009). "Reconciling Future Colorado River Flows." Southwest Hydrology 8(3).
Rajagopalan, B., Nowak, K., Prairie, J., Hoerling, M., Harding, B., Barsugli, J., Ray, A., and B. Udall (2009). "Water Supply Risk on the Colorado River: Can Management Mitigate?" Water Resources Research 45.
Schubert, et. al. (M. Hoerling, R. Pulwarty), 2009 (October): A U.S. CLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results. J. Climate, 22(19), 5251-5272. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3060.1
Wang, H., S. Schubert, M. Suarez, J. Chen, M. Hoerling, A. Kumar, and P. Pegion, 2009: Attribution of the Seasonality and Regionality in Climate Trends over the United States during 1950–2000. J. Climate, 22(10), 2571-2590. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2359.1
Hoerling, M., J. Eischeid, and J. Perlwitz, 2010 (April): Regional Precipitation Trends: Distinguishing Natural Variability from Anthropogenic Forcing. J. Climate, 23(8), 2131-2145. doi:10.1175/2009jcli3420.1
Kumar, A., J. Perlwitz, J. Eischeid, X. Quan, T. Xu, T. Zhang, M. Hoerling, B. Jha, W. Wang, 2010 (November): Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L21701. doi:10.1029/2010GL045022
Li, S. L., J. Perlwitz, M. P. Hoerling, X. T. Chen, 2010 (July): Opposite Annular Responses of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres to Indian Ocean Warming. J. Climate, 23(13), 3720-3738. doi:10.1175/2010jcli3410.1
Dole, R., M. Hoerling, J. Perlwitz, J. Eischeid, P. Pegion, T. Zhang, X.-W. Quan, T. Xu, and D. Murray, 2011 (March): Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06702. doi:10.1029/2010GL046582
Hoerling, M, D. Easterling, J. Perlwitz, J. Eischeid, P. Pegion, and D. Murray, 2011: Assessment of 2010 North American Regional Temperature [in State of the Climate in 2010.]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92 (6), S161-S163.
Hoerling, M., J. Hurrell, A. Kumar, L. Terray, J. Eischeid, P. Pegion, T. Zhang, X. Quan, and T. Y. Xu, 2011 (August): On North American decadal climate for 2011-20. J. Climate, 24, 4519-4528. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4137.1
Kumar, K., K. Kamala, B. Rajagopalan, M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, S. Patwardhan , G. Srinivasan, B. Goswami, R. Nemani, 2011 (June): The once and future pulse of Indian monsoonal climate, Clim. Dyn., 36, 2159-2170. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0974-0
Zhang, T., M. P. Hoerling, J. Perlwitz, D.-Z. Sun, and D. Murray, 2011 (September): Physics of U.S. surface temperature response to ENSO forcing. J. Climate, 24, 4874-4887. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3944.1
Hoerling, M., J. Eischeid, J. Perlwitz, X. Quan, T. Zhang, and P. Pegion, 2012 (March): On the increased frequency of Mediterranean drought. J. Climate, 25, 2146-2161. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1
Quan, X., M.P Hoerling, B. Lyon, A. Kumar, M.A. Bell, M.K. Tippett, and H. Wang, 2012: Prospects for Dynamical Prediction of Meteorological Drought. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (accepted).
Lyon, B., M.A. Bell, M.K. Tippett, A. Kumar, M.P. Hoerling, X.W. Quan and H. Wang, 2012: Baseline Probabilities for the Seasonal Prediction of Meteorological Drought. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (accepted).