Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CU CIRES Forecast of Hawaiian Index in Global Tropics Domain

Predictions of Hawaiian Index SSTA (red solid line) and verification (blue solid line). Dashed lines indicate one standard deviation confidence intervals appropriate to the LIM forecast. Hawaii index was calculated in the 4x10 degrees latitudeXlongitude box, centered at lat=20N, lon=155W.

Tables (Missing values indicated by -999.000):

*  Verification history
* Forecasts, Lead = 3 months
*  Forecasts, Lead = 6 months
*  Forecasts, Lead = 9 months
*  Forecasts, Lead = 12 months


hgl.plots

Time series of actual forecast errors normalized by one standard deviation of the expected forecast uncertainty given a perfect model. Blue line: Lead = 3 months. Red line: Lead = 6 months. Black line: Lead = 9 months. Yellow line: Lead = 12 months. Given the dynamical assumptions of the prediction model, forecast errors are Gaussian, and the horizontal lines indicate 95% confidence interval.

errhgl.plots

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Please Note: If you acquire LIM Pacific SST Anomalies and PDO Forecasts products from our website, we ask that you acknowledge us in your use of the data. This may be done by including a citation to us such as "LIM SST Anomalies Forecast data provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Science Division and CIRES CU, Boulder, Colorado, from their website at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/", in any documents or publications using these data. We would also appreciate receiving a copy of the relevant publication. This will help NOAA/PSD and CIRES to justify keeping the LIM SST Anomalies Forecast data freely available online in the future. Thank you!