Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CIRES/CDC Forecast of CAR Index in Global Tropics Domain
Tables (Missing values indicated by -999.000): Verification
history |
Forecasts, Lead = 3 months |
| Forecasts,
Lead = 6 months |
| Forecasts,
Lead = 9 months |
| Forecasts,
Lead = 12 months |
Predictions of Caribbean Index SSTA (red solid line) and verification (blue solid line). Dashed lines indicate one standard deviation confidence intervals appropriate to the LIM forecast.
Time series of actual forecast errors normalized by one standard deviation of the expected forecast uncertainty given a perfect model. Blue line: Lead = 3 months. Red line: Lead = 6 months. Black line: Lead = 9 months. Yellow line: Lead = 12 months. Given the dynamical assumptions of the prediction model, forecast errors are Gaussian, and the horizontal lines indicate 95% confidence interval.
Return to the main page.