Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CIRES/CDC Forecast of Niño 3.4 in IndoPacific Domain
Predictions of Niño 3.4 SSTA (blue solid line) and verification (solid red line). Dashed lines indicate one standard deviation confidence intervals appropriate to the LIM forecast. Niño3.4 Index was calculated in the area of 6N-6S, 170W-120W.
|Predictions and Verifications for 1970-present|
|  Verification history|
|  Forecasts, Lead = 3 months|
|  Forecasts, Lead = 6 months|
|  Forecasts, Lead = 9 months|
|  Forecasts, Lead = 12 months|
Time series of actual forecast errors normalized by one standard deviation of the total forecast uncertainty. Given the dynamical assumptions of the prediction model, forecast errors are Gaussian, and the horizontal lines indicate 95% confidence interval.
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