The building maintenance scheduled for Friday February 27th at 5:00pm MST has been postponed. It is rescheduled for March 6rd.

ESRL Seasonal Forecast Tool, Based on Tropical SSTs

Verification Page

Plot by Forecast Method

Forecast made Nov 2009

SST CCA 1-3 Month SST Forecast CCA 4-6 Month SST Forecast
Tropical Precip CCA 1-3 Month Trop Precip Forecast CCA 4-6 Month Trop Precip Forecast
N. American Precip CCA 1-3 Month NAmer Precip Forecast CCA 4-6 Month NAmer Precip Forecast
500mb Height CCA 1-3 Month 500z Forecast CCA 4-6 Month 500z Forecast
Surface Temp CCA 1-3 Month Tsfc Forecast CCA 4-6 Month Tsfc Forecast
Click on row or column heading for larger images.

Choose by SST forecast methodology:

  1. Select SST forecast methodology:
  2. Forecast from:
  3. Select units desired:

Each month, new forecasts are made for the subsequent 4 overlapping 3-month seasons. Usually the forecasts will be updated by the 10th of the month. Forecasts are based on a "two-tiered" approach: 1. tropical (20N-20S) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are independently predicted (statistically and/or dynamically); 2. these forecast SSTs used as boundary conditions for predicting the seasonal anomalies of precipitation, 500-mb height and surface temperature. Further details on methodology of ESRL 2-Category, 2-Tier Seasonal Forecast Tool.

NOTE: These seasonal forecasts are strictly experimental. NOAA and the Physical Sciences Division are not responsible for any consequences resulting from their use.

This is a Research and Development Application