ESRL/PSD GEFS Reforecast Version 2Sept 2: Reforecast2 products will not be updated today, as NOAA computers are down for maintenance.
The ESRL/PSD 2nd-generation Reforecast Project has produced a dataset of historical weather forecasts generated with a fixed numerical model, using the 2012 version of NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS). This Reforecast V2 dataset consists of an 11-member ensemble of forecasts, produced every day from 00 UTC initial conditions from Dec 1984 to present. The horizontal resolution of GEFS is T254 (about 50 km) out to 8 days, and T190 (about 70 km) from 8-16 days. Real-time forecasts are ongoing.
Among the advantages associated with this long reforecast dataset is that model forecast errors can be diagnosed from the past forecasts and corrected, thereby dramatically increasing the forecast skill. Past results have shown that the improvements may be particularly large for medium-range forecasts and for forecasts of relatively uncommon events such as heavy precipitation.
Forecast Products Based on ESRL/PSD GEFS Reforecast Version2 Data
- Precipitation Forecast Products Based on Analog Methodology
- Probabilistic Forecast Products, 2-3 to 8-14 Day Lead
- Tornado Probability Forecasts Based on Analog Methodology
- Daily Forecasts of PNA, NAO, EPO and WPO Teleconnection Indices
- Ensemble Forecast Spread at a Specified Geographic Location
- Daily Weather Forecast Maps, to 15 Day Lead