ESRL/PSD Analog Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts

Our reforecast dataset is of comparatively low horizontal resolution (T62, or about 250 km). However, high-resolution probabilistic forecasts can be produced using analog techniques. The precipitation forecast maps produced here utilize a logistic regression methodology.

The precipitation analyses used as analogs in this procedure are the 32-km grids from the North American Regional Reanalysis , downscaled to 5-km resolution using the 'mountain-mapper' technique .

Choose a Forecast Plot Below:
Region to Plot:
Analysis Date (format: yyyymmdd):
Please input a date within last 14 days:
Forecast Day from Analysis Date:
Above or Below

Note:  Choosing "Get verification plots" will give you a map of Brier Skill Score and a Reliability Diagram for forecasts from 1979-2004 for the month, forecast lead time and threshold you have chosen.

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This is a Research and Development Application