Tropical C-LIM Forecasts : 3-10 month leads
(Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CIRES/University of Colorado Forecast)
C-LIM VERSION 3.0: New LIM, now with thermocline depth! Base period is also updated to 1982-2011. Improved forecast skill for multi-month forecast leads. Forecast of forecast skill (using pattern correlation throughout Tropics as skill measure) also included.
New forecasts running and updated daily, but archives of past forecasts/verifications before 2014 are not installed yet.
Pentads 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, 42, 48, 54, 60
- Forecast maps of OLR/200 mb winds and SST/850 mb winds (anomalies)
- Forecast maps of OLR and SSTs (totals)
- Cross-validated forecast skill for OLR and SST anomalies (1982-2011)
Standard disclaimer: these forecasts are experimental. NOAA/PSD and CIRES/University of Colorado are not responsible for any loss occasioned by the use of these forecasts.
Please note: If you acquire C-LIM tropical Forecasts from NOAA/PSD and CIRES/University of Colorado, we ask that you acknowledge us in your use of the data. This may be done by including a citation in any documents or publications using these data, for example: "C-LIM tropical Forecast data provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO from their website at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/, based upon the model described in Newman et al. (2009)." We would also greatly appreciate receiving a copy of the relevant publication. This will help NOAA/PSD and CIRES/University of Colorado to justify keeping the C-LIM Forecast data freely available online in the future. Thank you!