Interpreting Climate Conditions

Publications

2016

Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation
What caused the recent "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern in winter temperatures?
Does El Niño intensity matter for California Precipitation
    Hoell, A., M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, K. Wolter, R. Dole, J. Perlwitz, T. Xu, and L. Cheng
    Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 819-825, doi: 10.1002/2015GL067102

Forced Atmospheric Teleconnections During 1979-2014
How Has Human-Induced Climate Change Affected California Drought Risk
    Cheng, L., M. Hoerling, A. AghaKouchak, B. Livneh, X. W. Quan, and J. Eischeid
    J. Climate, 29, 111-120, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0260.1

2015

How unusual was the cold winter of 2013-14 in the Upper Midwest?
    Wolter, K., J. K. Eischeid, G.J. van Oldenborgh, X.-W. Quan, J.E. Walsh, T.N. Chase, and R.M. Dole
    Bull. Amer. Meteorl. Soc., 96 (12), S10-S14, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00126.1

Arctic Tropospheric Warming: Causes and Linkages to Lower Latitudes
Pacific Sea Surface Temperature and the Winter of 2014

2014

Understanding Recent Eastern Horn of Africa Rainfall Variability and Change
    Liebmann, B., M. P. Hoerling, C. Funk, I. Bladé, . M. Dole, D. Allured, X. Quan, P. Pegion, J. K. Eischeid
    J. Climate, 27, 23, 8630-8645, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00714.1

What is responsible for the strong observed asymmetry in teleconnections between El Niño and La Niña?
Northeast Colorado extreme rains interpreted in a climate change context.
    Hoerling, M., K. Wolter, J. Perlwitz, X. Quan, J. Eischeid, H. Wang, S. Schubert, H. Diaz, and R. Dole
    Bull. Amer. Meteorl. Soc., 95(9), S15-S18 [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]

A model study of tropospheric impacts of the Arctic ozone depletion 2011
    Karpechko, A. Yu., J. Perlwitz, and E. Manzini
    J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 7999-8014, doi: 10.1002/2013JD021350

Atmosphere and Ocean Origins of North American Droughts
The Making of An Extreme Event: Putting the Pieces Together
Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought
How Fast Are the Tropics Expanding?
    Xiao-Wei Quan, Martin P. Hoerling, Judith Perlwitz, Henry F. Diaz, and Taiyi Xu
    J. Climate, 27, (23), 1999-2013, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00287.1

2013

Do extreme climate events require extreme forcings?
    Kumar, A., Chen, M., Hoerling, M. and Eischeid, J.
    Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 3440-3445, doi: 10.1002/grl.50657

Anatomy of an Extreme Event

    Hoerling, M., A. Kumar, R. Dole, J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, J. Eischeid, J. Perlwitz, X.W. Quan, T. Zhang, P. Pegion, and M. Chen
    J. Climate, 26, 2811-2832, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00270.1

Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Heat Waves, Cold Waves, Floods and Droughts in the United States: State of Knowledge

    Peterson, T.C., R.R. Heim, Jr., R. Hirsch, D.P. Kaiser, H. Brooks, N.S. Diffenbaugh, R.M. Dole, J.P. Giovannettone, K. Guirguis, T.R. Karl, R.W. Katz, K.Kunkel, D. Lettenmaier, G.J. McCabe, C.J. Paciorek, K.R. Ryberg, S. Schubert, V.B.S. Silva, B.C. Stewart, A.V. Vecchia, G. Villarini, R.S. Vose, J. Walsh, M. Wehner, D. Wolock, K. Wolter, C.A. Woodhouse, D. Wuebbles
    Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 821-834, doi: 1010.1175/BAMS-D-12-00066.1

Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge

    Kunkel, K.E., T.R. Karl, H. Brooks, J. Kossin, J.H. Lawrimore, D. Arndt, L. Bosart, D. Changnon, S.L. Cutter, N. Doesken, K. Emanuel, P.Ya. Groisman, R.W. Katz, T. Knutson, J. O'Brien, C.J. Paciorek, T.C. Peterson, K. Redmond, D. Robinson, J. Trapp, R. Vose, S. Weaver, M. Wehner, K. Wolter, and D. Wuebbles
    Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 499-514, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1

2012

A Multiscale Analysis of the Extreme Weather Events over Western Russia and Northern Pakistan during July 2010
    Galarneau, T.J. Jr, T. M. Hamill, R. M. Dole and J. Perlwitz
    Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1639-1664, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00191.1

Baseline Probabilities for the Seasonal Prediction of Meteorological Drought
    Lyon, B., M. A. Bell, M. K. Tippett, A. Kumar, M. P. Hoerling, X. W. Quan, H. Wang
    J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 51 (7), 1222-1237, doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0132.1

Prospects for Dynamical Prediction of Meteorological Drought
    Quan, X. W., M. P. Hoerling, B. Lyon, A. Kumar, M. A. Bell, M. K. Tippett, H. Wang
    J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 51 (7), 1238-1252, doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0194.1

Is a Transition to Semi-Permanent Drought Conditions Imminent in the U.S. Great Plains?
    Hoerling, M. P., J. K. Eischeid, X. W. Quan, H. F. Diaz, R. S. Webb, R. M. Dole, R. and D. Easterling
    J. Climate, 25, 8380-8386, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00449.1

On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought
    Hoerling, M., J. Eischeid, J. Perlwitz, X.W. Quan, T. Zhang, and P. Pegion
    J. Climate, 25, 2146-2161, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1

2011

Physics of U.S. surface temperature response to ENSO forcing
    Zhang, T., M. P. Hoerling, J. Perlwitz, D.-Z. Sun and D. Murray
    J. Climate, 24, 4874-4887, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3944.1

Was There a Basis for Anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave?

2010

Influence of Choice of Time Period on Global Surface Temperature Trend Estimates
Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification
    Kumar, A., J. Perlwitz, J. Eischeid, X. Quan, T. Xu, T. Zhang, M. Hoerling, B. Jha, W. Wang
    Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L21701, doi: 10.1029/2010GL045022

Opposite annular responses of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere to Indian Ocean warming
Regional Precipitation Trends: Distinguishing Natural Variability from Anthropogenic Forcing

2009

A strong bout of natural cooling in 2008
    Perlwitz, J., M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, T. Xu, and A. Kumar
    Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23706, doi: 10.1029/2009GL041188

Distinct causes for two principal US droughts of the 20th century