NOAA Coral Bleaching Prediction System Calls for Low Level of Coral Bleaching in Caribbean this Year
Large colony of bleached Montastrea annularis.
July 10, 2008
A new NOAA coral bleaching prediction system indicates that there will be some bleaching in the Caribbean later this year, but the event will probably not be severe. NOAA issued the first-ever seasonal coral bleaching outlook this week at the 11th International Coral Reef Symposium in Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.
The system also suggests that there is a risk of widespread bleaching in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in August, but little bleaching elsewhere during the northern hemisphere summer.
“The ability to predict coral bleaching events and provide advance warning is critically important to sustaining healthy reefs,” said Tim Keeney, deputy assistant secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and co-chair of the United States Coral Reef Task Force. “When coral reef managers and reef users are alerted, they can mobilize monitoring efforts, develop response strategies, and educate reef users and the public on coral bleaching and possible effects on reef resources.”
The new prediction system uses NOAA experimental sea surface temperature forecasts to develop maps of anticipated coral bleaching severity during the upcoming bleaching season (August to October). While NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch Program uses satellite sea surface temperature data to alert managers and scientists around the world of the risk of coral bleaching, the new prediction system includes longer range temperature forecasts up to three-months.
Coral bleaching is associated with a variety of stresses, especially increased ocean temperatures. This causes the coral to expel symbiotic micro-algae living in their tissues — algae that provide corals with food. Losing their algae leaves coral tissues devoid of color, and thus they appear bleached. Prolonged coral bleaching of over a week can lead to coral death and the loss of coral reef habitats for a range of marine life.
There is a potential for bleaching across the Caribbean basin in 2008, but it is not likely to be severe.
A major coral bleaching event occurred in the Caribbean in 2005, resulting in significant coral death in much of the region.
“As global temperatures continue to climb, predicting coral bleaching becomes even more critical," said C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D., coordinator of NOAA's Coral Reef Watch Program. “Our goal is to issue bleaching forecasts for coral reefs worldwide.”
The new system was developed by scientists with NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch in Silver Spring, MD and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., with funding from the NOAA Climate Program Office’s Sectoral Applications Research Program and NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
Relevant Web Sites
- NOAA Coral Reef Watch
- Seasonal Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook
- Linear Inverse Modeling SST Anomalies Forecast
- 2008 State of Coral Reef Ecosystems of the United States