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Introduction

For more than a decade FSL has been helping the United States Air Force carry out its worldwide weather mission. During recent years, in response to Air Weather Service forecasting needs, FSL has developed prototype user interfaces, moved mesoscale analysis and forecasting systems around the globe, visualized a full spectrum of atmospheric data, and performed requirement analyses for tactical and theater forecasting systems. This past year FSL integrated the best representation of these efforts into a Proof of Concept system at the Air Force Global Weather Center in response to a request for assistance in improving weather forecasts on the Bosnian front.

To accomplish their role in the Bosnia peacekeeping effort, forecasters at the Global Weather Center must use increasingly complex, higher resolution datasets to produce a simpler, more accurate forecast. Weather conditions such as low clouds, icing, turbulence, and heavy rain, snow, or fog can directly affect troop logistics. In addition, real-time visualizations of these data on finely tuned interactive computer displays can provide weather information that is easier to interpret by military planners who may not have a meteorology background. Indeed, how these data are interpreted can determine whether military operations run smoothly or become vulnerable to weather-related disruptions.

Air Force management asked FSL to develop and install a Proof of Concept system at the Global Weather Center to demonstrate the ability to produce high resolution two- and three-dimensional weather forecast products for Bosnia. This risk-reducing system would be used to further evaluate requirements and performance parameters specified for the Air Force Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System.

Implementing the Proof of Concept System

The three primary goals of the Proof of Concept system were to develop a mesoscale data assimilation and initialization system, to integrate the initialization system into an existing parallelized operational mesoscale model, and to develop a prototype data visualization system. An added challenge for FSL and the collaborating organizations was the urgency to complete all of these difficult tasks on short order.

In close collaboration with the Air Force Global Weather Central and Argonne National Laboratories, FSL set out to complete its mission. The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) was configured to cover the Bosnian theater (Figure 1). LAPS generates high-resolution analysis fields for the MM90 model, a version of the NCAR-Pennsylvania State MM5 model which was parallelized at the Argonne National Laboratories. The LAPS and MM90 output grids are displayed in two and three dimensions on FSL's WFO-Advanced workstation, also installed at the Global Weather Center. Installation of the LAPS system (merging the Global Weather Center's data formatting and ingest), integration of the MM90 model, and installation of the WFO-Advanced workstation were all completed in a record-breaking period of three months.



Figure 1. The LAPS-MM90 domain over Bosnia.

The Data Assimilation System - LAPS

Developed at FSL as an advanced data assimilation system, LAPS generates fields for meteorological analysis, application algorithms, and model initialization. The LAPS assimilation scheme adapts gracefully to varying amounts and types of data, and has been ported to different geographic areas, such as over the Atlanta domain to help forecast weather for the 1996 Olympic Games (see related article in this issue). Its processing consists of data ingest, data reformatting to accepted standards, quality control, and objective analysis.

LAPS was installed at the Global Weather Center on an IBM RISC 6000 workstation, which is part of a parallel processing system consisting of a 14 node, IBM SP2 and the IBM workstation. The LAPS initial fields include data ingested from the Global Weather Center's databases: the Navy's global model, Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and upper-air and surface observations taken over the Bosnian domain. Staff at Global Weather Central developed software to automatically extract these initial data from their respective databases and send them to the IBM workstation. The Bosnia domain covers a 1000 km x 1000 km area centered on Dubrovnik. The LAPS analysis has 101 x 101 horizontal points and 21 vertical levels, ranging from 1100 hPa to 100 hPa, at 50 hPa increments. LAPS was run on the RISC 6000 processor, and the LAPS output grids were sent to the MM90 model running on the IBM SP2.

The Model - LAPS Grids Integrated into MM90

FSL developed the interface software needed to initialize MM90 from the LAPS mesoscale analyses, and to use the forecasts from the boundary conditions for the MM90 1200 UTC run. The system was first tested inhouse with the MM5, Version 2. LAPS runs hourly, and MM90 runs every 12 hours (from the 0000 and 1200 UTC LAPS analyses). The NOGAPS forecast from the previous forecast time is used for the MM90 lateral boundary conditions, i.e., the NOGAPS 0000 UTC 24-hour forecast is used as the 12-hour lateral MM5. The appropriate model option specifications were then provided to the Argonne National Laboratories for their model runs.

FSL also developed, and provided to Argonne, the post- processing software needed to go from the MM90 output files to the WFO-Advanced workstation. Some of these variables are directly predicted by MM5/MM90, and some are diagnostic. The three-dimensional fields currently implemented by FSL on the WFO-Advanced, the D3D workstation, (using the LAPS 50-mb increment isobaric surfaces) include height, temperature, winds, relative humidity, vertical motion, specific humidity, cloud water, and cloud ice. The two-dimensional surface fields for the D2D workstation include winds, temperature, pressure, dewpoint, relative humidity, potential temperature, and equivalent potential temperature. Other two-dimensional fields include cloud base, cloud top, mean-sea-level pressure, integrated liquid water, total precipitable water, hourly precipitation, total accumulated precipitation, positive and negative buoyant energies, cloud cover, cloud ceiling, maximum echo top in a column, visibility, heat index, 1500 m pressure, and lifted index.



Figure 2. D3D visualization over Bosnia showing cloud liquid water.

Two- and Three-Dimensional Visualization

FSL has an extensive background in producing two- and three-dimensional real-time forecast products using the gridded output from operational models such as the Rapid Update Cycle, Colorado State University's Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and MM5. The FSL-developed D2D (display two dimensional) application and the AVS/Express-based D3D (display three dimensional) form the core of FSL's WFO-Advanced workstation. Two- and three-dimensional visualizations are created using the LAPS and MM90 gridded output data to depict the current and forecast states of the atmosphere.

The WFO-Advanced D2D application, a prototype of an AWIPS-like forecaster workstation, is in operational use at the Denver National Weather Service Forecast Office. The workstation software is designed to provide a flexible platform for a geographically independent set of forecaster capabilities. With simple changes to ASCII tables, menus are customized to the data and the geographical area of interest, a feature referred to as "localization." For the Bosnia localization, the menus were confined to the model data. Map overlays for the European theater were created for scales ranging from the Northern Hemisphere to the LAPS-MM90 domain. WFO-Advanced was developed using an object-oriented design approach, recognizing the concept of easy localization. Eventually, the system will include customization tools so that users can define scales onsite, rather than through changes to the ASCII tables.

A Research Associate with FSL's Modernization Division, Patrice Kucera, provided training and a D2D User's Guide for forecasters at the Global Weather Center at Offut Air Force Base, near Omaha, Nebraska. She demonstrated the WFO-Advanced D2D operations and trained about 20 forecasters and programmers involved in numerical modeling. Since the WFO-Advanced user interface is designed to be very intuitive, Air Force staff could quickly navigate around the software. The improvements, upon seeing the D2D displays, were immediately obvious. The gridded data were displayed as color images showing an increase in explicit weather features in the Bosnia domain (Figure 2). Easier-to-understand forecast information is especially beneficial to nonforecasters and forecasters who may have received compressed meteorological training for specific combat missions. More accurate and descriptive weather data can increase the strategic planners' accuracy as well.

FSL staff have been developing and experimenting with three-dimensional visualization techniques for years. Paula McCaslin, a Computer Analyst in the Forecast Research Division, and Philip McDonald, a Research Associate in the Systems Development Division, initially used Version 5 of the Application Visualization System (AVS5) to develop D3D tools to investigate data with volume rendering, dynamic probes, flexible visual perspectives, animation over time, through space, and over specified ranges of high resolution data and animated wind tracers. These colorful visualizations have appeared on the covers of many American Meteorological Society journal and conference preprint publications, FSL publications, and in newspapers and other journals.

The three-dimensional visualizations used for the Air Force Proof of Concept system were developed using the latest version of the AVS/Express software, including an experimental user interface for the D3D application on the WFO-Advanced. This application allows Air Force forecasters to access and display the LAPS and MM90 analysis and forecast grids in three dimensions in the Bosnia theater forecast zones. Paula McCaslin provided training and demonstrations of this new capability for forecasters at the Global Weather Center. Her training sessions also included use of the D3D User's Guide. The feedback from these users will be closely considered for refining the user interface and data display techniques for D3D.

Product Distribution

The capability to produce Graphics Interchange Format (GIF) images of the D2D and D3D products was developed for the Proof of Concept system. The GIF images, created by the Global Weather Center forecasters, will be placed on a restricted Internet site for access by the Department of Defense within the European theater.

Status and Plans

The Bosnian Proof of Concept system will be demonstrated at the 77th American Meteorological Meeting and Exhibit early next February in Long Beach, California. FSL will continue making improvements to the system, including:
• Further develop the "moveable window" capability of the LAPS-MM90 system.
• Incorporate satellite data into the LAPS analysis. Staff will expand LAPS to use polar orbiter radiance data, both infrared and microwave, to derive information about surface temperature, clouds, upper-level temperature and moisture.
• Integrate satellite data and observations from the Global Weather Center's databases into the display system. Surface observations are difficult to come by, not only in Bosnia, but in any active war zone. Satellite data, however, can be exploited to provide more surface and upper-air information.

Summary

The capability to place accurate, timely, and well-formatted atmospheric data before a skilled forecaster will produce a better forecast product. FSL's goal in prototyping this capability for the Air Force is to assure planners at the Global Weather Center that more frequent and more accurate forecasts are available for their critical operations in the Bosnia peacekeeping effort. The primary goal of the Air Force is to leverage national assets to the benefit of all Air Force weather programs. FSL's technology transfer charter and operational technology expertise leads us to achieve both of those goals.

Acknowledgments

Many FSL specialists are acknowledged for their contributions to the success of this project. Some of the major contributors are mentioned below.
• LAPS - The entire LAPS Team (all meteorologists) in the Forecast Research Division participated in the installation of LAPS at the Global Weather Center: Dan Birkenheuer coordinated these efforts; Jennifer Cram performed the modeling tasks; John Snook tied the Navy's model into LAPS; John Smart set up the topography for the Bosnia domain; Peter Stamus, Steve Albers, and Daniel Birkenheuer were all involved with data integration and other LAPS tasks.

• Workstation - From the Modernization Division, Darien Davis, a computer specialist, coordinated the implementation of the WFO-Advanced for the Bosnia Proof of Concept system, and Scott O'Donnell, a programmer, worked on the map background. From the Systems Development Division, Susan Williams, a research associate, with assistance from James Barbour, a systems analyst, and Mark Moore, a computer specialist from the Aviation Division, configured the WFO-Advanced D2D software; and Sean Kelly, a computer specialist, worked on the GIF capability. James Ramer, a meteorologist from the Forecast Research Division, worked on the localization feature.

  Editor's Note: A complete paper, including references, entitled "Gridded Data Visualization at the Air Force's Global Weather Center," by Sher Wagoner, Daniel Birkenheuer, Jennifer Cram, Paula McCaslin, Philip McDonald, Darien Davis, and Major Randy Lefevre and Captain Scott Hausman, will be presented by Sher Wagoner at the upcoming American Meteorological Society Meeting in Long Beach.

  (Sher M. Wagoner is a Senior Systems Analyst in FSL's Aviation Division, headed by Michael Kraus. More information on related activities are available on URL http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/ .)