Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Demonstrations Workshop

November 13-15 in Boulder, Colorado

AGENDA

Tuesday, 13 November

1. 1230:Check in/logistics
2. 1300: Welcome Dan Eleuterio/Sandy MacDonald
3. 1315: Invited speaker from ESG/RADM Titley - TBD
4. 1330: ESPC Overview, Update, Workshop Goals — Dan Eleuterio/Jesse Carman
5. 1400: Demonstration overviews by Demo Coordinators
6.  1400: Demo 1 Overview - Stan Benjamin
7.  1420: Demo 2 Overview - Melinda Peng
8.  1440: Demo 3 Overview - Phil Jones
9. 1500: Break
10.  1520: Demo 4 Overview - Gregg Jacobs
11.  1540: Demo 5 Overview - Jim Richman
12. 1600: Introduction to discussion of common architecture, data repository, standards, demo goals
13. 1700: Adjourn

Wednesday, 14 November

1. 0745: Coffee, Continental Breakfast
2. 0800: Demonstrations 1-3 Details and Science Plans
3. 0800: Extreme Weather Events:
4.  Predictability of Blocking Events and High Impact Weather
5.   at Lead Times of 1-6 Weeks - Chair Stan Benjamin
6.  - Randy Dole, NOAA/ESRL/PSD
7.  - Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP/CPC
8.  - Judith Perlwitz, NOAA/ESRL/PSD
9.  0900: Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Threat:
10.  Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Likelihood, Mean Track, and
11.  Intensity from Weekly to Seasonal Timescales - Melinda Peng
12.  - Suzana Camargo, U Columbia
13.  - Jae Schemm, NCEP/CPC
14.  - Russ Elsberry, NPS
15. 1000: Break
16. 1020: Arctic Sea Ice Predictability Beyond the Seasonal Scale - Phil Jones
17.  - Cecilia Bitz, U Washington
18.  - Marika Holland, NCAR
19.  - Pam Posey, NRL-SSC (Jim Richman presenting)
20. 1130: Preliminary discussion of Demos 1-3 overlaps and coordination
21. 1200: Working Lunch
22. 1300: Demonstration Breakout Sessions
23. 1500: Break
24. 1520: Quick update on breakout sessions - issues, questions
25. 1540: Continue Breakout Sessions
26. 1700: Adjourn

Thursday, 15 November

1. 0745: Coffee, Continental Breakfast
2. 0800: Demonstrations 4 & 5 Details and Science Plans
3. 0800: Coastal Seas: Predictability of Circulation, Hypoxia, and Harmful
4.  Algal Blooms at Lead Times of 1-6 Weeks - Gregg Jacobs
5.  -Bob Weisberg
6.  - Steve DiMarco
7.  - TBD
8. 0900: Predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from Monthly
9.  to Decadal Timescales for Improved Weather and Climate Forecasts - Jim Richman
10.   -Presentations by participants
11. 1000: Break
12. 1020: Q uick update on breakout sessions - issues, questions
13. 1030: Continue Demonstration Breakout Sessions
14. 1200: Working Lunch
15. 1300: Demo Outbriefs, Discussion & Coordination
16.  1300: Demo 1 Overview - Stan Benjamin
17.  1325: Demo 2 Overview - Melinda Peng
18.  1350: Demo 3 Overview - Phil Jones
19.  1415: Demo 4 Overview - Gregg Jacobs
20.  1440: Demo 5 Overview - Jim Richman
21. 1505: Break
22. 1525: Discussion of common architecture, data repository, standards, testing,
23.  coordination, next steps, decadal prediction, January AMS, December AGU, etc.
24. 1645: Action items
25. 1700: Adjourn

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