Welcome!

In 2005 the ESRL Global Systems Division (GSD) descended from the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), which was largely responsible for the successful development of AWIPS workstation for weather forecasting. AWIPS has served as the forecasting platform for the National Weather Service's approximately 110 Weather Forecast Offices for over 10 years. Recently, GSD began investing research resources into the development of software utilities to aid NWS forecasters in the new challenge of routinely issuing weather forecasts in the form of event probabilities. Probabilistic forecasting is based largely on ensemble modeling, an area where GSD has been involved in ensemble forecast modeling support for real-time field projects. Thus, we intend to leverage this expertise, and the experience of AWIPS developers, by extending AWIPS to enable probabilistic forecast production.


Downloads

This page provides README and downloadable tar files for getting started with D2D and GFE probabilistic prototypes.

Forecast Process

This pull down menu provides the latest probabilistic forecasting developments using the Strawman Forecast Process. Select Visualizing Ensemble Data, Weighting Ensemble Members, Generating Probabilistic Grids, and Generating Products to learn more about how the forecast process is utilized.
When using the experimental probabilistic forecasting displays on your local workstation, refer to the Forecast Process Job Sheet for a tutorial on how to get started.
New displays and products are constantly being added as our developmental efforts continue.

Reading Room

This pull down menu provides information on the motivations behind probabilistic forecasting and hosts many supporting documents. Also included in the pull down menu is a link to AWIPS II documentation.

Workshops

This pull down menu provides the latest news and scheduled events within the GSD Probabilistic Forecasting group. Please select Oct 22-24 Workshop for a link to the workshop's "Findings and Outcomes", plus other documentation.
The calendar displays meeting dates and times and scheduled workshops. The latest meeting notes will be provided as a link on the calendar. To view past meeting notes, select a date from the pull down menu located beneath the calendar.