Reading Room
Motivations for probabilistic forecasting
The scientific basis for expressing weather forecasts in terms of event probabilities is given by Zhu et al. (2002), along with examples showing how decision-making can be optimized to maximum economic benefit. The NWS commissioned the National Research Council to write Completing the Forecast, which outlines societal needs, institutional responsibilities, etc.
The NOAA Forecast Uncertainty Steering (NFUSE) Team conducted a survey of NWS forecasters and managers to assess the readiness of the NWS to add uncertainty information to the current suite of products (Novak et al. 2008). This survey was drawn on heavily to assess requirements that appear in OSIP documentation.
Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles
David R. Novak, David R. Bright, Michael J. Brennan
Weather and Forecasting
2008 early online release, posted January 2008
DOI: 10.1175/2008WAF2222142.1
[Abstract] [PDF(1.17M)]
Click here to view a recent State of the Science FACT SHEET for Weather Forecast Uncertainty. This is a draft document and will be revised another couple of times, so please check back again for additional updates.
Workshop Reports
This section contains reports generated from the 1st and 2nd workshops held at GSD. These reports contain an overview of the workshops, plus the findings, outcomes, and recommendations for future planning.
- Oct 22-24, 2008 - GSD Probabilistic Forecasting Workshop Report
2009 - 2nd OST&T Workshop On Communicating Uncertainty and Decision Support Report
AWIPS II
The software being developed at GSD is ultimately intended for implementation in AWIPS II. Planning information and other documentation about AWIPS II can be found here.
References
Scientific/Economic basis for probabilisitic forecasting:
- Yuejian Zhu, Zoltan Toth, Richard Wobus, David Richardson, and Kenneth Mylne, 2002: The Economic Value of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 83, Issue 1, pp. 73-83.
EKDMOS:
- Glahn, B., M. Peroutka, J. Wiedenfeld, J. Wagner, G. Zylstra, B. Schuknecht, and B. Jackson, 2009: MOS uncertainty estimates in an ensemble framework. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 246-268.
Reforecast-based methods:
- Hamill, T. M., and J. S. Whitaker, 2006: Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on Reforecast Analogs: Theory and Application, Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3209-3229.
- Thomas M. Hamill, Jeffrey S. Whitaker, and Steven L. Mullen, 2006: Reforecasts: An Important Dataset for Improving Weather Predictions, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 87, Issue 1, pp. 33-46.
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Thomas M. Hamill, Jeffrey S. Whitaker, and Xue Wei, 2004: Ensemble Reforecasting: Improving Medium-Range Forecast Skill Using Retrospective Forecasts, Monthly Weather Review, Volume 132, Issue 6, pp. 1434-1447.
A method based on Bayes' Theorem:
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Krzysztofowicz, R. and W.B. Evans, 2008: Probabilistic forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database, Weather and Forecasting, Volume 23, April 2008, pp. 270.289.
Forecaster survey, and a very nice bibliography on ensemble methods and probabilistic forecasting:
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Novak, D.R., D.R. Bright, M.J. Brennan, 2008: Operational forecaster uncertainty needs and future roles. Weather and Forecasting, early online release posted January 2008.