Probabilistic Forecasting Exploratory Development

Edit Histogram

The EditHistogram procedure displays the distribution of a weather element over an area and time choosen by the user.  The snapshot below (click on image for full resolution) illustrates the user interface.

Display

The histogram displayed above shows the distribution of temperature over a selected area at a selected time.  For temperature the tool displays the data in one degree  fharenheit intervals or bins.  Intervals for wind are one knot and for QPF (tp) they are 0.01inches.  The colors reveal the contribution of each model to that bin.  The models have been grouped for easier management and were choosen under the assumption that ensemble members with similar names will also perform similarly.  Model groupings can be configured differently.  The veritcal axis "COUNT" indicates the total number of grid points whose values fall within the corresponding bin displayed on the x-axis.  For example, the 67 degree bin shows that 15 different models contribute a total of over 1500 grid points that bin.

Editing Controls

The key located in the upper left corner of the window shows the colors assigned to various groups.  Individual models within its group are each assigned a different shade. Clicking on any color-coded group label with Mouse Button-1 (MB1) will toggle off or on all the models in that group.  This action causes the histogram to be recalculated without the contribute of the selected group.  MB1 clicking on any of the colored rectangles will toggle off or on that partiular model and remove it from the histogram as well.

Models can also be assigned individual weights.  To adjust the weight of a model, press and hold MB1 within its corresponding colored rectangle and move the mouse up or down to adjust the weight.  As you drag the mouse up and down, the current weight is displayed nearby.

Publishing

The weights defined in the interface can be published to a web service so that other applications such as D2D can incorporate the weights when displaying emsemble data.  When you're ready to publish your weight to the data server, just select the "Publish" button.  I you want to exit after publishing, select the "Publish/Dismiss" button.  If you want to exit the application without publishing, select "Cancel".