A Simplified Estimate of Contribution to Change of CO2 Concentration by the Statistical Method
H.-C. Lim, H.-J. Yoo and S.-J. Kim
Korea Global Atmosphere Watch Center, Climate Science Bureau, Korean Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea; 041-674-6420, E-mail: email@example.com
The atmospheric CO2 concentration has been continuously observed at Anmyeon Island, Korea (36° 32’N, 126° 19’E) since 1999. The raw data of CO2 concentration measured at Anmyeon Island have gone through the quality assurance and quality control procedures, which are the same methodology advised by the World Data Center of Green House Gases. In the last outputs, three components of CO2 concentration variation remain and this timeseries of CO2 concentration is called the ‘keeling curve’. The dominant components of variations of CO2 concentration are the seasonal variation, the long-term trend, and interannual variation. Figure 1 shows the three components of CO2 concentration measured at the Korea Global Atmosphere Watch Center from 1999 to 2009. Each component of CO2 variations is separated by a low-cut pass filter and a single liner regression analysis. If it is assumed that total variance of CO2 concentration has three components: the long-term trend forced by combustion of fossil fuels, seasonal variation by biosphere and atmospheric transport, and interannual variation related with oceanic sink and release, we can comfortably estimate the contribution of change of CO2 concentration from ratios of each variance against total variance. Our results are that over 72% by combustion of fossil fuels, ~27% by biosphere and transport, and ~1% by ocean has contributed to total change of CO2 concentration in Anmyeon Island, Korea from 1999 to 2009.