Seminar

Abstract

The Global Burden of Disease relates premature mortality to a range of causes, including air pollution by ozone and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). Quantifying the role of air pollution has been a challenge, in part due to uncertainty about human exposure to air pollution worldwide. We present results from a global atmospheric chemistry model, combined with population data, country-level health statistics and pollution exposure response functions. We calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM_2.5, leads to 3.3 million premature deaths/year worldwide, predominantly in Asia (75%). Contrary to the common view that traffic, industry and power generation are dominant sources, we show that residential energy use (e.g., heating, cooking) is the largest emission category worldwide due to its prevalence in India and China. While in the western world traffic and power generation are important, in the Eastern US, Europe, Russia and Japan agricultural emissions make the largest contribution to PM_2.5. Projections based on a business-as-usual scenario indicate that mortality attributable to air pollution could double in the coming decades.

Reference: Lelieveld, J., J.S. Evans, M. Fnais, D. Giannadaki, and A. Pozzer, Nature 525, 367-371, doi:10.1038/nature15371, 2015.